This analysis discusses the nature of U.S.-China relations in the context of an ongoing power transition between these two great powers, the rise of China and its impact, China’s tortuous experience during its transition to modernity, U.S.-China conflicts over the two nations’ core interests, and the future of the U.S.-China power transition.
This analysis holds the following propositions. First, as a result of its genuine development and the impact of its expanding influence on the international system, China and the United States are inescapably engaged in a power transition process, which is, on top of all other issues, about the future of international relations. Second, the history of power transition is filled with bloodshed; yet China and the United States are willing to blaze a new path out of this deadly contest. Third, although China and the United States have exchanged goodwill for a peaceful future, the two nations nevertheless have many contentious and unsettled conflicts of interest that are further complicated by the power transition process and, if not properly managed, can force the two to stumble into unintended war against each other, hence repeating the history of power transition tragedy. Finally, the next 30 years will be a crucial stage for China’s development and the evolution of the U.S.-China power transition. Unfortunately, these titanic changes are overshadowed by the inherently conflicting relations between China and the United States. It will take these two great powers extraordinary efforts to come to terms with the emerging new realities.
THE POWER TRANSITION THEORY * Another Power Transition in the Making? * Who Is the Contender? * U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: FROM POTENTIAL TO REALITY * China’s Tortuous Transition to Modernity * 1840-1910: From Misguided Development to Revolution * 1911-1949: Deadly Contests for the Fate of China * 1949-1978: False Start of Modernization and Self Destruction * 1978-2008: Yangwu All Over Again * The China Threat * China as a Responsible Stakeholder * FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION * Possible Outcomes for the U.S.-China Power * Transition * Deadly Contest for Change? * A Change of Guard? * Reluctant Accommodations? * Flashpoints in the U.S.-China Relations * Taiwan: Why China Does Not Let It Go? * Western Pacific: Troubled Waters? * What about Tibet and Xinjiang? * U.S.-China Power Transition: At Odds, But Not at War * China’s Options * U.S. Options * Do’s and Don’ts on the Core Interests * Final Thoughts * Selected Articles From the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Signed in 1982, Came into Effect in 1994 * Cairo Declaration * Potsdam Proclamation * Treaty of Peace with Japan * Treaty of Peace Between the Republic of China and Japan, Signed at Taipei, 28 April 1952
In addition to the China paper, this unique collection of American military documents provides a special view of recent Chinese military and policy developments. Contents: China Shaping the Operational Environment – A Disciple on the Path of Deception and Influence * The “People” in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China’s 80-Year-Old Military * China’s Maritime Quest * The PLA At Home and Abroad: Assessing The Operational Capabilities of China’s Military * Arms Sales To Taiwan: Enjoy The Business While It Lasts * China’s Role In The Stabilization Of Afghanistan * The Coming of Chinese Hawks * Turkey and China: Unlikely Strategic Partners. This ebook also includes the annual U.S. intelligence community worldwide threat assessment in Congressional testimony by Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr.
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